Most people worry about whether or not Modi will try and become the next dictator. They feel that the very characteristics that make him attractive to so many and that present a contrast with the weak Manmohan Singh are a cause for concern. But my worry is something different – something diametrically opposite. I feel that the danger of Modi is not that he’ll be too strong, but that he’ll be too weak. I’m worried that he won’t have enough control over the hardcore hindutva types that run amok in his party.
I will make the assumption that Modi is a smart guy. What does a smart politician want? To become the PM. It’s the highest goal they can aspire to. What do you aspire to once you become the PM? To get re-elected of course! How does that happen? By getting people to like you. And you can’t get people to like you if you behave like a dick. You can’t throttle freedoms, make inflammatory speeches and all that without the people of India throwing you out in the next elections. Which is why Modi has smartly chosen the development plank throughout his campaign. He’s carefully avoided all mention of Ayodhya and hindutva etc.
Smart people are good for the country. I don’t care if he doesn’t really believe in unity/development or he’s just acting. Makes no difference from a practical perspective. As citizens of India, we don’t have to worry about smart people. We need to worry about the crazies. The loonies. The fanatics. As far as the BJP goes, these are the enthusiastic “ram rajya” types. People who want to elevate Hinduism to a national religion. People whose hatred for Muslims runs deep enough to throw electoral considerations out of the window. And from what I’ve seen so far, the BJP has them by the jugful.
As citizens of India, we don’t have to worry about smart people. We need to worry about the crazies. The loonies. The fanatics.
Just recently for example, both Togadia and Giriraj made stupid comments that highlight their outdated and insane way of thinking. So much so that Modi had to censure them for derailing the development agenda. I believe Modi in that there’s no need for him to resort to this idiotic strategy in order to win. He’s discovered that the development card trumps all others. But it’s obvious that many people in the BJP and the VHP don’t think like this. And that’s because they’re stupid. The question is – how much control does Modi have over the stupid elements in his party?
I think all of us have been so caught up in whether or not Modi himself is going to wreck India that we’ve overlooked the real danger – that Modi will become another Manmohan Singh. I’m worried that Modi will be a guy desperately trying to run his party in a way that makes sense, only to have his agenda completely pushed aside by loonies and foaming at the mouth hindutva types. Already they’re making statements anticipating the BJP in power and what they’ll do once they have the freedom to act without restraint.
What will Modi do then? Will he stand powerless and helpless? For the sake of the country, I hope that he’s able to keep a firm grip on his party and bend it to his will. Or else we’re all screwed.
He will do exactly the same thing he did while he was with ramdas kadam on stage.
yes. this is my apprehension too…
Would it be better to have a smart PM with looney sidekicks or a looney PM with smarter sidekicks ?
While the danger in the 2nd option is obvious by now, the dangers of 1st option are at best a speculation for now. The smart always find a way to control the the looney.
Its as if i could have written this post. I have had this discussion with my husband many times. We live in Mumbai and voting for Sena was never an option for me. My husband was on the fence (given that he is in finance sector and his shop might just shut if Indian economy continues on the same trajectory), but Ramdas Kadams statement proved to be the last nail in the coffin for Shiv Sena from his side too!
In reply to Aturma
Yeah, that was another crazy lunatic. The BJP seems full of them! Will Modi be able to keep them in hand?
If Modi has to depend on extreme right wing lunatics to shore up his base support, then these sort of situations will become inevitable. It was the same with Vajpayee…when he wanted to visit the victims of Godhra massacre and console them in the immediate aftermath of 2002, he was dissuaded from doing so by RSS/VHP. They had so much influence over BJP at the time that they could stop the PRIME MINISTER from going where he wanted to go. Similarly, when Vajpayee wanted Modi to quit in 2002, he was overridden by the more ideological factions in his party.
I’m not a fan of Modi…but no matter what Modi’s list of faults are, I feel he is not so much ideological as opportunistic. In this aspect, he will be more similar to Congress…I don’t know whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing. My feeling is that he will implement a few populist measures to keep the right wing quiet, but a majority of his policies will be more center-right in nature.
An interview in ToI that talks about the same thing.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/stoi/all-that-matters/Saffron-agenda-fears-in-a-BJP-led-government-is-overblown/articleshow/34947622.cms?
In reply to Satish
That’s a very interesting article! Thanks. Let’s keep our fingers crossed and hope the predictions are true.
In reply to Satish
very interesting post… i feel that opportunists are a safer bet than either radicals or reactionaries…
hopefully he will not throw our civil liberties under the bus to assuage the hindutva brigade…
there is no strong base in india lobbying for individual freedoms and he could easily pass laws restricting freedoms without any major upheaval to appease the right wing while pursuing his own agenda in terms of economic and foreign policy…
not a political analyst or anything but this seems like a plausible situation…
“I will make the assumption that Modi is a smart guy. What does a smart politician want? To become the PM. It’s the highest goal they can aspire to. What do you aspire to once you become the PM? To get re-elected of course!”
There is the problem of wanting power for the sake of it. The issues to me are twofold (actually three-fold including Godhra but it seems like no one wants to speak of dead people in the interest of good roads): RSS control of his brain (even if they stop the mandatory trips to discuss major discussions with RSS top brass, I mean at least Sonia Gandhi was elected, not a known misogynist bunch of unknown old men!); and the combination of authoritarian with the need for power (for the sake of it).
If the second were not true, he’d have a known second line of leaders who do not include a thug of a ‘secretary’ who he can trust and send for his errands. Every strong BJP leader has been sidelined already. Watch it happen to Sushma Swaraj next. How sad is it that a L K Advani seems like a less radical option?!
I wish I could have hope and be optimistic, that is my normal frame of mind. I would add extreme vigilance to the list now, I can’t rest easy and hope we won’t have to regret this election result for the rest of our lives.
In reply to Sangitha
In my opinion, it all depends on how smart Modi is. He’s gotta know that he won this election solely because of the development plank and nothing else. Does he want to dilute that by having another agenda? We’ll have to wait and see…